ELRUSITO escribió:el poder del GORRO es mas fuerte que el de GROUPON...
ahora lo decis ... lo bajo de un cascotazo a ese gorro, lo bajo eh!
TVPP TVPA TVPY Cupones Vinculados al PBI
Re: TVPP TVPA TVPY Cupones Vinculados al PBI
ahora lo decis ... lo bajo de un cascotazo a ese gorro, lo bajo eh!
Re: TVPP TVPA TVPY Cupones Vinculados al PBI
Ya reinvertí lo previsto en 9,68; espero la semana próxima para ver que cazzo hago con los lotes.
Re: TVPP TVPA TVPY Cupones Vinculados al PBI
Este año perdi bastante con respecto a mis maximos. Entre la baja, caucion y muy poco en opciones (1 % de mi cartera) me descapitalice bastante. Sin embargo quiero solidarizarme y mandar un fuerte abrazo a aquellos que apostaron fuerte en opciones.
Es cuestion de levantarse y seguir luchando. Los cupones siguen siguen siendo un excelente activo a mediano/largo plazo mas alla de las viscitudes del mercado.
Es cuestion de levantarse y seguir luchando. Los cupones siguen siguen siendo un excelente activo a mediano/largo plazo mas alla de las viscitudes del mercado.
Re: TVPP TVPA TVPY Cupones Vinculados al PBI
Interesante analisis de JPM sobre el arreglo con el CdP:
Press suggests that Argentina is close to finalizing a Paris Club deal
This morning the local press (La Nacion <http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1432248-la-a ... er-al-club> ) suggested that Argentina could be close to announcing an agreement with Paris Club to normalize debt with creditor nations in the neighborhood of $8.9 billion ($6.5 billion in arrears plus interest and penalties).The article suggests that such an announcement could happen this week or next and that the negotiation could imply $1.5 billion up-front payment by Argentina.
If this proves correct the headline would deliver positive news to the market (i.e. normalization of debt takes another step forward and arrears are reduced). But this signal —while positive in itself — should not be used to extrapolate expectations that the government is paving the way for re/accessing markets
Paris Club is an end in itself—rather than a means to achieve market access
Whether the announcement of an agreement with Paris Club comes to fruition near-term (as the press suggests) or is delayed further is difficult to know. But it is evident that Argentina is genuinely pursuing the closing of the negotiations with Paris Club. The appointment of Lorenzino as Economy Minister ratifies this objective as a priority on the economic agenda of the president.
That said, it remains uncertain whether Lorenzino's appointment signals the administration's interest in tapping markets for refinancing—rather than paying down—debt to private creditors. Once a Paris Club deal is struck, markets might be inclined to extrapolate and envision that the next step will involve normalizing access to capital markets.
At this stage we are inclined to believe that the Paris Club negotiation is an end in itself rather than a means for eventually accessing markets. Enjoying political support for closing a Paris Club deal does not imply a presidential sign off for accessing markets.
Thus, any positive impact on Argentine bonds of a Paris Club announcement is likely to be short-lived. We do not believe that a Paris Club deal will be followed by access to markets for two reasons:
First, the current policy of repaying debt with reserves seems to continue to have traction with politicians even though it contributes to pro-cyclical policy tightening, weighs on the stock of reserves, and bears a indirect but still high financing cost. Second, ANSeS (social security administrator) provides an alternative vehicle to sell Treasury debt into the secondary market without publicizing the politically embarrassing market rates that Argentina would be paying if it taps the primary market directly.
The drag on reserves from Treasury debt payments will continue in December
Since mid-November Argentina's reserves have stabilized as private sector capital outflows have moderated following a tightening of FX controls (see two charts below). Yet December debt payments are likely to entail a new drop in reserves. This week's GDP coupon payment is likely to imply a loss of reserves of about $1.9 billion (if the proportion of average outflows relative to actual Treasury payments from prior years remains constant this year).
Likewise, a Paris Club deal will require an upfront payment and—under the status quo of economic policy—entail reserve loss. The press suggests upfront payments for a Paris Club deal would total $1.5 billion, but the amount is unknown. In any case, it is clear that repaying Paris Club debt has different implications if accompanied or not by the goal of accessing markets. If it is not accompanied by political support for that goal (as we believe) then striking a deal with Paris Club will constitute a new drag on reserves.
ANSeS may continue to sell short-duration bonds while absorbing long-duration
The aforementioned press article suggests that recent placement by the Treasury of USD Discount bonds due '33 (local law) with the ANSeS (social security administrator) had the purpose of providing the Treasury with USD cash to make an upfront payment as part of the Paris Club deal. In recent weeks the Official Bulletin reflected Treasury issuance of Discounts of $2.2 billion, all of which were privately placed with ANSeS.
While the ANSeS is pressumed to keep these long-dated bonds in its portfolio, it has been inclined to sell other USD denominated Treasury paper (like Bonar 17and Boden 15) into the secondary market to raise funds. The expectation that a Paris Club deal might be close to being struck could therefore raise expectations of further supply of short-dated USD bonds by ANSeS.
However, those sales (by providing USD to the market) can also been associated with a goal of complementing BCRA's FX policy (tightly managing ARS in the face of capital outflows). We believe that this has played a more prominent role in ANSeS' secondary market bond operations than the opportunity of providing a bridge for funding the Treasury in the market. Not that often times ANSeS' sale of USD bonds has been correlated with ANSeS buying ARS bonds.
In any case, investor's perception of an overhang in the short-mid part of the USD curve is likely to linger in a context of press articles involving potential Paris Club repayments alongside news that the Treasury is raising cash from ANSeS by selling it long duration USD bonds.
Press suggests that Argentina is close to finalizing a Paris Club deal
This morning the local press (La Nacion <http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1432248-la-a ... er-al-club> ) suggested that Argentina could be close to announcing an agreement with Paris Club to normalize debt with creditor nations in the neighborhood of $8.9 billion ($6.5 billion in arrears plus interest and penalties).The article suggests that such an announcement could happen this week or next and that the negotiation could imply $1.5 billion up-front payment by Argentina.
If this proves correct the headline would deliver positive news to the market (i.e. normalization of debt takes another step forward and arrears are reduced). But this signal —while positive in itself — should not be used to extrapolate expectations that the government is paving the way for re/accessing markets
Paris Club is an end in itself—rather than a means to achieve market access
Whether the announcement of an agreement with Paris Club comes to fruition near-term (as the press suggests) or is delayed further is difficult to know. But it is evident that Argentina is genuinely pursuing the closing of the negotiations with Paris Club. The appointment of Lorenzino as Economy Minister ratifies this objective as a priority on the economic agenda of the president.
That said, it remains uncertain whether Lorenzino's appointment signals the administration's interest in tapping markets for refinancing—rather than paying down—debt to private creditors. Once a Paris Club deal is struck, markets might be inclined to extrapolate and envision that the next step will involve normalizing access to capital markets.
At this stage we are inclined to believe that the Paris Club negotiation is an end in itself rather than a means for eventually accessing markets. Enjoying political support for closing a Paris Club deal does not imply a presidential sign off for accessing markets.
Thus, any positive impact on Argentine bonds of a Paris Club announcement is likely to be short-lived. We do not believe that a Paris Club deal will be followed by access to markets for two reasons:
First, the current policy of repaying debt with reserves seems to continue to have traction with politicians even though it contributes to pro-cyclical policy tightening, weighs on the stock of reserves, and bears a indirect but still high financing cost. Second, ANSeS (social security administrator) provides an alternative vehicle to sell Treasury debt into the secondary market without publicizing the politically embarrassing market rates that Argentina would be paying if it taps the primary market directly.
The drag on reserves from Treasury debt payments will continue in December
Since mid-November Argentina's reserves have stabilized as private sector capital outflows have moderated following a tightening of FX controls (see two charts below). Yet December debt payments are likely to entail a new drop in reserves. This week's GDP coupon payment is likely to imply a loss of reserves of about $1.9 billion (if the proportion of average outflows relative to actual Treasury payments from prior years remains constant this year).
Likewise, a Paris Club deal will require an upfront payment and—under the status quo of economic policy—entail reserve loss. The press suggests upfront payments for a Paris Club deal would total $1.5 billion, but the amount is unknown. In any case, it is clear that repaying Paris Club debt has different implications if accompanied or not by the goal of accessing markets. If it is not accompanied by political support for that goal (as we believe) then striking a deal with Paris Club will constitute a new drag on reserves.
ANSeS may continue to sell short-duration bonds while absorbing long-duration
The aforementioned press article suggests that recent placement by the Treasury of USD Discount bonds due '33 (local law) with the ANSeS (social security administrator) had the purpose of providing the Treasury with USD cash to make an upfront payment as part of the Paris Club deal. In recent weeks the Official Bulletin reflected Treasury issuance of Discounts of $2.2 billion, all of which were privately placed with ANSeS.
While the ANSeS is pressumed to keep these long-dated bonds in its portfolio, it has been inclined to sell other USD denominated Treasury paper (like Bonar 17and Boden 15) into the secondary market to raise funds. The expectation that a Paris Club deal might be close to being struck could therefore raise expectations of further supply of short-dated USD bonds by ANSeS.
However, those sales (by providing USD to the market) can also been associated with a goal of complementing BCRA's FX policy (tightly managing ARS in the face of capital outflows). We believe that this has played a more prominent role in ANSeS' secondary market bond operations than the opportunity of providing a bridge for funding the Treasury in the market. Not that often times ANSeS' sale of USD bonds has been correlated with ANSeS buying ARS bonds.
In any case, investor's perception of an overhang in the short-mid part of the USD curve is likely to linger in a context of press articles involving potential Paris Club repayments alongside news that the Treasury is raising cash from ANSeS by selling it long duration USD bonds.
Re: TVPP TVPA TVPY Cupones Vinculados al PBI
Lotero21 escribió: Ese lote ahora es la 9.025 y vale 0,68 ctvs de prima
AUGUSTO escribió: Gracias Lotero21 (fuck!!).
No te preocupes ! este año los mataron a todos con las opciones
Re: TVPP TVPA TVPY Cupones Vinculados al PBI
AUGUSTO escribió:
Tengo lotes de la 15 dic a 1,16; pregunta, como se lee en el panel ya que no lo veo en ese valor? (es la primera vez que compro lotes,....y veo que tengo que pensar en comprar un tonel de vaselina).
Estoy por cargar para comprar al precio actual,.... y los lotes veremos la semana próxima.
Alguna idea? Gracias y saludos.
es la 9.025D y ahora la estan pagando a 0,68
Re: TVPP TVPA TVPY Cupones Vinculados al PBI
Lotero21 escribió: Ese lote ahora es la 9.025 y vale 0,68 ctvs de prima
Gracias Lotero21 (fuck!!
).Re: TVPP TVPA TVPY Cupones Vinculados al PBI
cymhar escribió:Y, el piso creo que por ahora se lo va a encontrar en el precio que compran OTC ... Alguno puede tirar datos?!
El problema es Europa si mañana sigue bajando la veo en 9.-el viernes.chau-
Inversor Pincharrata
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Re: TVPP TVPA TVPY Cupones Vinculados al PBI
Mr_K escribió:Se va a 6 el tvpp.
y la soja a 300 dolares
imho.
Pero no sos serio, con las soja a ese valor y la caida del Euro, lo habias valualdo en 12.
Re: TVPP TVPA TVPY Cupones Vinculados al PBI
Lotero21 escribió:Como pagan el put de 16 el que ahora es 10,025 dic
AUGUSTO escribió: Tengo lotes de la 15 dic a 1,16; pregunta, como se lee en el panel ya que no lo veo en ese valor? (es la primera vez que compro lotes,....y veo que tengo que pensar en comprar un tonel de vaselina).
Estoy por cargar para comprar al precio actual,.... y los lotes veremos la semana próxima.
Alguna idea? Gracias y saludos.
Ese lote ahora es la 9.025 y vale 0,68 ctvs de prima
Re: TVPP TVPA TVPY Cupones Vinculados al PBI
Lotero21 escribió: Como pagan el put de 16 el que ahora es 10,025 dic
lumar escribió: no veo que paguen, solo 50 a 0.36 siendo 0.33 la par, nada loco y poca cantidad
Lotero21 escribió: Si pero los calls te los estan vendiendo abajo de la par y te los tiran por la cabeza, a mi me parece que esta muy bien pagado ese put
VIAMATEOS escribió: No suelo ser mal pensado, pero no seras vos el que esta queriendo que le den esos puts?
No
Re: TVPP TVPA TVPY Cupones Vinculados al PBI
Y, el piso creo que por ahora se lo va a encontrar en el precio que compran OTC ... Alguno puede tirar datos?!
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