srv1239 escribió:Estoy totalmente afuera de acá pero les comparto un reporte del "Doichbank", una primera impresión del aumento de precios:
Petrobras - Price increase: inadequate solution for a structural issue
Price increase: inadequate solution for a structural problem
We expect the market’s reaction to the price adjustment to be negative, despite the benefits of the increase. The main reasons are: (1) the increase is below what Petrobras needs to close the gap to international prices and end losses, and (2) the market will likely be concerned that this could be the last price increase until the 2014 Presidential election. We note that the impact on final consumer should be even more subdued than the 4% (gasoline) and 8% (diesel) price increase, reinforcing the view that the government remains unwilling to have fuel prices impact inflation and to raise disapproval among the population (hence the very limited increase in gasoline price).
What about the pricing mechanism?
Despite the wording on the press release: “Petrobras informs of the implementation of its pricing policy” and “following the recommendation of its board of directors, for commercial reasons, the parameters of the pricing methodology will be strictly internal to Petrobras”, it is clear that company’s proposal of a pricing mechanism that improves visibility of convergence to international parity was not accepted by the government. We do note the statement made by Petrobras that the company aims at lowering debt ratios to targets within 24 months, and that the board will monitor the company’s ratios, raising the possibly of new price increases. However, the 24 month time frame is a bit too long for the market to price any improvement at this point.
What is next for the stock?
Despite the announcement, gasoline and diesel prices locally remain below parity as well as the prices of other refined products. With losses expected to remain, domestic oil production growth should be the main driver for the shares over the next months. However, stronger domestic demand of refined products and the strengthening of the USD should deteriorate the company’s balance sheet and limit stock performance. In the event of lower oil prices and the government’s decision to allow Petrobras to maintain gasoline and diesel prices unchanged, the company should improve refining results and even recover past losses (estimated at USD33bn since 1Q08). However, lower oil prices should not bode well for the sector’s performance.
Ojala que no sea tan así la repercusión en el ADR.
Me la fume a la baja, muchos nos bancamos el casi 20% de caída abrupta, esperando esta noticia.
Así que....... Ojala el mkt no vea el medio vaso vacio
EN LA COTIZACION.... ACA ESTUVO TODO EL TIEMPO ABAJO UN 2 % , CERRO NEUTRA, NY CERRO UN 1 % ARRIBA.... BRASIL CERRO POSITIVA...... ESTAMOS MEJOR PARADO QUE EL VIERNES..... DEBERIA SUBIR.... LA NOTICIA ES BUENA... NO FUE LA SUBA ESPERADA , FALTO UN 2 % MAS... PERO EN FIN FUE SUBA.... Y EL PUNTO B DEL COMUNICADO ES CLAVE.... BRASIL QUIERE EQUPARAR EL PRECIO DEL PETROLEO A SUS VALORES INTERNACIONALES.... ESTE DATO ES CLAVE.....ESPERAREMOS MAS AUMENTOS......
pero gap al fin. Mucha volatilidad y mucho volumen habrá. Para mi es 