Mensajepor HerrX » Lun Feb 06, 2012 11:50 am
Credit Suisse sigue recomendando deuda emergente dolarizada:
EM sovereign dollar debt: poised to outperform
Summary
· In terms of the amount of spread contraction that has taken place, EM sovereign dollar bonds have significantly underperformed EM sovereign CDS, EM corporates, US investment grade corporates and US high yield corporates since 27 December, which is the date after which global credit spreads started to narrow from their recent highs.
· We think that EM sovereign dollar debt will reverse their recent underperformance, particularly against EM sovereign CDS if, as we expect, global risk-sentiment is stable in the weeks ahead.
· If global risk appetite drops, perhaps in response to surprises associated with the pending Greek debt exchange, we still think that the gap between the spread on EM sovereign dollar bonds and the spread on EM sovereign CDS will narrow in those markets where the current bond-CDS basis is at levels that are extremely wide by historical standards.
· We find short positions in bond-CDS basis particularly attractive in Turkey, South Africa and Argentina. In EMEA, we recommend going short the basis using Turkey 30s and South Africa 22s as the “long bond leg” of the trade (hedged with US dollar swaps). Similarly, in Argentina, we recommend a notional neutral long EUR Discount (FX and EUR swap rates hedged) against long 10Y CDS position.
· Those real-money investors who are able to do so may also consider reducing exposure to EM and/or US corporates and increasing exposure to EM sovereigns.