OGZD Gazprom Cedear
Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear
oudine2 escribió:Tremenada mañanita, habrá algún driver?
Esta recuperando el terreno que merece al parecer
Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear
Tremenada mañanita, habrá algún driver?
Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear
According to preliminary data, Gazprom produced 364.3 billion cubic meters of gas in the period from January through September 2018, an increase of 7.2% (+24.5 billion cubic meters) from the same period of 2017. The augmentation is comparable to the amount of Russian gas supplies to Italy, the third largest export market of Gazprom, in 2017 (23.8 billion cubic meters).
The Company’s gas sales in the domestic market via the national gas transmission system grew by 5% (+7.9 billion cubic meters).
Gazprom’s supplies to Europe in the first nine months of 2018 amounted to 149.2 billion cubic meters, a rise of 5.8% (+8.2 billion cubic meters) against the January-September period of 2017. Specifically, gas exports to Germany grew by 12.3% (+4.7 billion cubic meters), to Austria by 33% (+2 billion cubic meters), to the Netherlands by 40.1% (+1.3 billion cubic meters), to Poland by 11.7% (+0.9 billion cubic meters), to France by 9.4% (+0.8 billion cubic meters), to Hungary by 11.5% (+0.6 billion cubic meters), to the Czech Republic by 12.3% and to Denmark by 8.5%. In September, a significant increase in gas supplies to the following countries of Eastern Europe was noted: to Poland by 59.1%, to Hungary by 39.3% and to the Czech Republic by 23.4%.
The Company’s gas sales in the domestic market via the national gas transmission system grew by 5% (+7.9 billion cubic meters).
Gazprom’s supplies to Europe in the first nine months of 2018 amounted to 149.2 billion cubic meters, a rise of 5.8% (+8.2 billion cubic meters) against the January-September period of 2017. Specifically, gas exports to Germany grew by 12.3% (+4.7 billion cubic meters), to Austria by 33% (+2 billion cubic meters), to the Netherlands by 40.1% (+1.3 billion cubic meters), to Poland by 11.7% (+0.9 billion cubic meters), to France by 9.4% (+0.8 billion cubic meters), to Hungary by 11.5% (+0.6 billion cubic meters), to the Czech Republic by 12.3% and to Denmark by 8.5%. In September, a significant increase in gas supplies to the following countries of Eastern Europe was noted: to Poland by 59.1%, to Hungary by 39.3% and to the Czech Republic by 23.4%.
Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear
kelui escribió:perdón por el off topic pero alguien tiene NILSY
Ex Dividendo Sep 28 / 2018 $ 2.09337
Pago el Nov 01 / 2018
Yield 12.76%
hace unos días pagó 0,94 por ADR o un 7% de Yield
esto paga más que un junk bond, 20% de dividendos en un año, me parece insano!
ojo que el precio refleja eso y tampoco es que sube a lo loco, la estarán descapitalizando? onda YPF con los esquenazi
No entro mucho por acá. Yo tengo NILSY, gran papel minero. Está ganando más plata que el año pasado porque terminó una expansión. Y tomó deuda creo que al 1.5% para poder aumentar el dividendo y seguir con algunas otras expansiones menores (no al estilo Gazprom).
La Gazprometa viene joya, movia por el precio del oil que es lo que manda de corto. De largo, importa que cuando termine los proyectos aumente el dividendo muy fuertemente. En una de esas el precio acompañará la suba del dividendo, pero viendo que NILSY está al 11% de yield, tal vez Gazprom también quede al 11% de yield y el precio no se mueva, quién sabe. Para el que invierte para cobrar el dividendo, debería ser indistinto.
Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear
OFF TOPIC pero de la otra rusa
hoy cortó NILSY otros $1,15
Pay date: November 1, 2018
hoy cortó NILSY otros $1,15
Pay date: November 1, 2018
Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear
viene lindo, aproximándose a los 5 dólares, pero no deja de ser una momia lechera.
yo descargué algunos cedear entre $91 y $92 pero me queda algo y tengo ADRs que no toco desde 2016
esto en 2020 debería valer el triple, eso espero
mirándola en mensual estaría cerrando arriba de la media de 12 meses, pero hasta que no rompa los 5,35 la veo dificil
yo descargué algunos cedear entre $91 y $92 pero me queda algo y tengo ADRs que no toco desde 2016
esto en 2020 debería valer el triple, eso espero
mirándola en mensual estaría cerrando arriba de la media de 12 meses, pero hasta que no rompa los 5,35 la veo dificil
Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear
Gracias Oudine2 !!
Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear
Nuevo artículo, nada demasiado nuevo:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/420784 ... rdstream-2
Summary
Trump declines to sanction companies involved with Nordstream 2.
Gazprom's price is depressed due to heightened political risk.
Risk is lifting and should lift the stock price out of multi-year sideways market.
Looking for more? I update all of my investing ideas and strategies to members of Stocks, Shocks & Rocks. Get started today »
To say that the Nordstream 2 pipeline is controversial is the height of understatement. This pipeline, now officially under construction by Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY), lies at the center of a number of hot-button geopolitical imperatives.
Each step along the path to the recent announcement by President Trump where he stated he would not sanction the companies involved in Nordstream 2 has been fraught with headline-grabbing risk.
From Sputnik News:
However, Donald Trump has stated the US was not planning to slap any sanctions against companies involved in the Russian project when asked about such a possibility.
"We are not looking to do that. We just think it is very unfortunate for the people of Germany that Germany is paying billions and billions of dollars a year for their energy to Russia," Trump said to the journalists.
The US has not only spoken out against the Nord Stream 2, but has already taken measures to block the venture. Last year, the CAATSA law (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) was adopted, which stipulates the possibility of imposing unilateral sanctions on companies which are directly involved in Nord Stream 2.
This statement by Trump is the one Gazprom bulls have been waiting for. I’ve been very consistent on this, Nordstream 2 was always going to get built. I said as much here on Seeking Alpha back in June with an article called “ U.S. Sanctions Will Not Stop Nordstream 2”
Here’s what I said in June:
Nord Stream 2 is too important politically to future Russian/European Union relations for it to fall apart at the last minute like South Stream did after U.S. pressure on Bulgaria forced Russian President Vladimir Putin to pull the project and reroute it through Turkey, resurrected as Turkish Stream.
That miscalculation cost eastern Europe gas supplies it needed for growth as well as billions in transit fees for Bulgaria. That decision cost the Bulgarian government its rule and today's leadership is openly lobbying for a new version of South Stream which Gazprom has not committed to yet. This time, it could be German Chancellor Angela Merkel who would feel the wrath of voters. Germany needs Nord Stream 2, and, if Gazprom's Chairman of the Board Alexander Medvedev is to be taken seriously, Nord Stream 3 as well.
So, if she folds here to Trump's pressure it will likely spell the end of her government within the year.
And this is exactly what has taken place with this admission by Trump that he will not impose sanctions on the five European oil majors which are Gazprom’s financiers on the project.
Ultimately, Trump had to weigh the damage to U.S. and world markets sanctioning Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), Uniper, BASF’s (OTCQX:BASFY) subsidiary Wintershall, France’s Engie and Austria’s OMV over his frustrations concerning Nordstream 2.
Sanctioning five of the biggest companies in Europe for making a smart business decision that goes against U.S. foreign policy objectives is simply not in the Dale Carnegie playbook of treating your customers well.
So, any further action by Trump would have been a net negative for the U.S. It would have alienated European businesses even more for little to no gain on the ground, since Novatek can still outcompete Cheniere (LNG) for LNG supplies to Europe from Yamal on the Baltic Sea.
In the end all of the tough talk of ‘European energy security’ met the reality of Nordstream 2’s superior economics. And when one looks that this situation from the perspective of Europe, nothing could be more secure for them than doing more business with a supplier who has never let politics get in the way of supplying them gas.
For all of the fear-mongering around Gazprom’s market share in Europe, the truth is that the gas has always flowed. And despite numerous provocations by the European Union – changes to the European energy ownership laws which helped to scuttle South Stream in 2014, an anti-trust suit which Gazprom settled with changes to its take-or-pay contracts, going along with the U.S. on ruinous sanctions – Gazprom has been nothing but a reliable energy supplier since the days of the Cold War.
No amount of grandstanding, threats or sanctions can overcome the economic advantages of Russian piped gas to Europe over LNG shipped thousands of miles from Louisiana.
You can’t create a market like this out of whole cloth. But that is exactly what the U.S. has been attempting to do with its opposition to the Nordstream 2 pipeline.
And that has done nothing but keep the political risk surrounding Gazprom at a fever pitch with the intent of keeping the stock price low and Russian markets unattractive to foreign capital.
So, for investors today looking around the energy space the last political risk associated with Gazprom is the U.S. banning investment into any Russian stock and forceable de-listing of their ADRs.
The stock jumped on the Russian MOEX this week on the news that Trump would no longer block Nordstream 2, putting in a weekly closing price above RUB 151.65.
From a longer-term perspective Gazprom is mired in a six-year consolidation pattern between RUB 100 and RUB 160. A move above the May 2016 high at 170.43 would constitute a major long-term structural breakout on the stock. And the continuation of a year-long rally in the stock price in local currency terms.
For U.S. investors worried about currency risk, the U.S. has thrown about all it can to drain Russia of foreign capital and while the ruble has been caught in the backlash of emerging market stress, since it is not in the same situation as countries like Turkey, Brazil and Argentina, the weakness in the Ruble this year cannot be attributed to over-exposure to dollar-denominated corporate debt.
That was the cause of the 2014/15 ruble crisis. This year’s ruble devaluation stemmed from sanctions hitting Russian companies exposed to euro-denominated debt. This was precipitated by expanding the scope of sanctions back in May which forced massive liquidation of Russian corporate debt.
But, it’s not a reflection of the ruble’s fundamentals against the backdrop of $75+/barrel Brent crude prices and natural gas inching towards $3/mcf as we come into the winter. This says to me the ruble will likely fall back into the mid-50s as long as oil and gas prices remain buoyant, which is likely unless Trump also folds on Iran sanctions and Iranian exports fall less than the market is currently handicapping.
With Gazprom’s deliveries to Europe expanding regardless of Nordstream 2 the future looks very bright now that the last obstacles to Nordstream 2 are over.
Lastly, let’s simply look at fundamentals. Gazprom, despite the recent rally, is still trading at a price-to-sales of just over 0.5. P/E is 3.6. It’s paying a 5.7% yield and it has three major pipeline projects nearing completion over the next year which will begin adding to these numbers.
Today’s stock price represents Gazprom criminally under-priced relative to its value and it’s future prospects.
The market has over-reacted for years to the company’s political risk and under-played the commitment Russia’s government has to these major projects’ success. With Power of Siberia, Nordstream 2 and Turkish Stream all due to hit the bottom line by the end of 2019, buying Gazprom today at below $5 per share represents one of the best value and growth plays in the energy space.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/420784 ... rdstream-2
Summary
Trump declines to sanction companies involved with Nordstream 2.
Gazprom's price is depressed due to heightened political risk.
Risk is lifting and should lift the stock price out of multi-year sideways market.
Looking for more? I update all of my investing ideas and strategies to members of Stocks, Shocks & Rocks. Get started today »
To say that the Nordstream 2 pipeline is controversial is the height of understatement. This pipeline, now officially under construction by Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY), lies at the center of a number of hot-button geopolitical imperatives.
Each step along the path to the recent announcement by President Trump where he stated he would not sanction the companies involved in Nordstream 2 has been fraught with headline-grabbing risk.
From Sputnik News:
However, Donald Trump has stated the US was not planning to slap any sanctions against companies involved in the Russian project when asked about such a possibility.
"We are not looking to do that. We just think it is very unfortunate for the people of Germany that Germany is paying billions and billions of dollars a year for their energy to Russia," Trump said to the journalists.
The US has not only spoken out against the Nord Stream 2, but has already taken measures to block the venture. Last year, the CAATSA law (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) was adopted, which stipulates the possibility of imposing unilateral sanctions on companies which are directly involved in Nord Stream 2.
This statement by Trump is the one Gazprom bulls have been waiting for. I’ve been very consistent on this, Nordstream 2 was always going to get built. I said as much here on Seeking Alpha back in June with an article called “ U.S. Sanctions Will Not Stop Nordstream 2”
Here’s what I said in June:
Nord Stream 2 is too important politically to future Russian/European Union relations for it to fall apart at the last minute like South Stream did after U.S. pressure on Bulgaria forced Russian President Vladimir Putin to pull the project and reroute it through Turkey, resurrected as Turkish Stream.
That miscalculation cost eastern Europe gas supplies it needed for growth as well as billions in transit fees for Bulgaria. That decision cost the Bulgarian government its rule and today's leadership is openly lobbying for a new version of South Stream which Gazprom has not committed to yet. This time, it could be German Chancellor Angela Merkel who would feel the wrath of voters. Germany needs Nord Stream 2, and, if Gazprom's Chairman of the Board Alexander Medvedev is to be taken seriously, Nord Stream 3 as well.
So, if she folds here to Trump's pressure it will likely spell the end of her government within the year.
And this is exactly what has taken place with this admission by Trump that he will not impose sanctions on the five European oil majors which are Gazprom’s financiers on the project.
Ultimately, Trump had to weigh the damage to U.S. and world markets sanctioning Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A), Uniper, BASF’s (OTCQX:BASFY) subsidiary Wintershall, France’s Engie and Austria’s OMV over his frustrations concerning Nordstream 2.
Sanctioning five of the biggest companies in Europe for making a smart business decision that goes against U.S. foreign policy objectives is simply not in the Dale Carnegie playbook of treating your customers well.
So, any further action by Trump would have been a net negative for the U.S. It would have alienated European businesses even more for little to no gain on the ground, since Novatek can still outcompete Cheniere (LNG) for LNG supplies to Europe from Yamal on the Baltic Sea.
In the end all of the tough talk of ‘European energy security’ met the reality of Nordstream 2’s superior economics. And when one looks that this situation from the perspective of Europe, nothing could be more secure for them than doing more business with a supplier who has never let politics get in the way of supplying them gas.
For all of the fear-mongering around Gazprom’s market share in Europe, the truth is that the gas has always flowed. And despite numerous provocations by the European Union – changes to the European energy ownership laws which helped to scuttle South Stream in 2014, an anti-trust suit which Gazprom settled with changes to its take-or-pay contracts, going along with the U.S. on ruinous sanctions – Gazprom has been nothing but a reliable energy supplier since the days of the Cold War.
No amount of grandstanding, threats or sanctions can overcome the economic advantages of Russian piped gas to Europe over LNG shipped thousands of miles from Louisiana.
You can’t create a market like this out of whole cloth. But that is exactly what the U.S. has been attempting to do with its opposition to the Nordstream 2 pipeline.
And that has done nothing but keep the political risk surrounding Gazprom at a fever pitch with the intent of keeping the stock price low and Russian markets unattractive to foreign capital.
So, for investors today looking around the energy space the last political risk associated with Gazprom is the U.S. banning investment into any Russian stock and forceable de-listing of their ADRs.
The stock jumped on the Russian MOEX this week on the news that Trump would no longer block Nordstream 2, putting in a weekly closing price above RUB 151.65.
From a longer-term perspective Gazprom is mired in a six-year consolidation pattern between RUB 100 and RUB 160. A move above the May 2016 high at 170.43 would constitute a major long-term structural breakout on the stock. And the continuation of a year-long rally in the stock price in local currency terms.
For U.S. investors worried about currency risk, the U.S. has thrown about all it can to drain Russia of foreign capital and while the ruble has been caught in the backlash of emerging market stress, since it is not in the same situation as countries like Turkey, Brazil and Argentina, the weakness in the Ruble this year cannot be attributed to over-exposure to dollar-denominated corporate debt.
That was the cause of the 2014/15 ruble crisis. This year’s ruble devaluation stemmed from sanctions hitting Russian companies exposed to euro-denominated debt. This was precipitated by expanding the scope of sanctions back in May which forced massive liquidation of Russian corporate debt.
But, it’s not a reflection of the ruble’s fundamentals against the backdrop of $75+/barrel Brent crude prices and natural gas inching towards $3/mcf as we come into the winter. This says to me the ruble will likely fall back into the mid-50s as long as oil and gas prices remain buoyant, which is likely unless Trump also folds on Iran sanctions and Iranian exports fall less than the market is currently handicapping.
With Gazprom’s deliveries to Europe expanding regardless of Nordstream 2 the future looks very bright now that the last obstacles to Nordstream 2 are over.
Lastly, let’s simply look at fundamentals. Gazprom, despite the recent rally, is still trading at a price-to-sales of just over 0.5. P/E is 3.6. It’s paying a 5.7% yield and it has three major pipeline projects nearing completion over the next year which will begin adding to these numbers.
Today’s stock price represents Gazprom criminally under-priced relative to its value and it’s future prospects.
The market has over-reacted for years to the company’s political risk and under-played the commitment Russia’s government has to these major projects’ success. With Power of Siberia, Nordstream 2 and Turkish Stream all due to hit the bottom line by the end of 2019, buying Gazprom today at below $5 per share represents one of the best value and growth plays in the energy space.
Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear
Agusguti escribió:Genial gracias por la aclaración, entonces la que debo seguir es OGZD de Londres,y no tanto el usdars ni ogzd del bcba? Soy bastante nuevo como verás jaja, estoy aprendiendo y me pareció una muy buena cobertura frente a la devaluación del peso y luego de leer el foro lo subvalorada que esta.
Sí, cotiza en dos bolsas importantes, en el micex (Rusia) y en la de Londres (también cotiza en EEUU pero el mayor volumen lo mueve en estas dos que te menciono).
Es una inversión en RUBL principalmente, y va a seguir muy de cerca la cotización del mismo, aunque también tiene alta correlación con el U$S y el precio internacional de los commodities (al mismo tiempo el RUBL también está muy correlacionado con el precio del petróleo). En pesos vas a ver que sube o baja la tenencia (al igual que si tuvieses una propiedad si la tasases todos los días en pesos verías que sube y baja según el valor del U$S) pero al igual que la propiedad en general seguís la evolución del activo en moneda dura.
En cuanto a la subvaloración no hay dudas que lo está y también es una muy buena cobertura frente al riesgo argentino y latinoamericano en general. Ahora bien, como mencioné bastantes veces hay un riesgo "Rusia" y sus conflictos con EEUU, riesgos intrínsecos a la actividad y algunas otras cosas más. Por último la subvaloración lleva años, así que puede o no subir de precio, si uno se mete acá yo creo que es en vísperas de como mínimo esperar a 2020/2021 que es cuando los más grandes proyectos van a estar en marcha y reflejando su potencial. Si la apreciación viene antes, bienvenida sea, pero tener un horizonte más corto que eso creo que puede traer grandes decepciones.
Saludos y no dudes en preguntar que es un muy buen foro con gente que sabe mucho y además es tranquilo sin demasiados trolls ni gente agresiva
Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear
oudine2 escribió:Creo que estás viendo el gráfico de Gazprom Neft, subsidiaria de Gazprom. Acá cotiza Gazprom, que en Londres es OGZD. Gazprom Neft es la que se dedica al petróleo, tiene un market cap de 25.000 millones de U$S y está casi totalmente controlada por Gazprom
Esta es Gazprom Neft:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... DIOBE.html
Y esta es Gazprom, la que cotiza acá:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... DIOBE.html
http://www.gazprom.com/about/subsidiaries/subsidiary/
Gazprom Neft http://www.gazprom-neft.com 95.679 per cent ownership by Gazprom
La inversión es en U$S si se "pierde" algo por la baja del USD/ARS en U$S se mantiene y es lo único que importa, los negocios son en RUBL y en EUR y siguen mucho el precio del petróleo.
Genial gracias por la aclaración, entonces la que debo seguir es OGZD de Londres,y no tanto el usdars ni ogzd del bcba? Soy bastante nuevo como verás jaja, estoy aprendiendo y me pareció una muy buena cobertura frente a la devaluación del peso y luego de leer el foro lo subvalorada que esta.
Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear
Agusguti escribió:Buenas, entre en el cedear (OGZD) mirando el canal alcista de GAZ (la de Londres),ahora lo que nos frena un poco es la baja del USDARS desde mi punto de vista, pero hasta que se estabilice este.Gracias a todos los que opinaron, los leí desde la primer página y es muy importante por que me cuesta encontrar info en internet.
Creo que estás viendo el gráfico de Gazprom Neft, subsidiaria de Gazprom. Acá cotiza Gazprom, que en Londres es OGZD. Gazprom Neft es la que se dedica al petróleo, tiene un market cap de 25.000 millones de U$S y está casi totalmente controlada por Gazprom
Esta es Gazprom Neft:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... DIOBE.html
Y esta es Gazprom, la que cotiza acá:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... DIOBE.html
http://www.gazprom.com/about/subsidiaries/subsidiary/
Gazprom Neft www.gazprom-neft.com 95.679 per cent ownership by Gazprom
La inversión es en U$S si se "pierde" algo por la baja del USD/ARS en U$S se mantiene y es lo único que importa, los negocios son en RUBL y en EUR y siguen mucho el precio del petróleo.
Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear
Buenas, entre en el cedear (OGZD) mirando el canal alcista de GAZ (la de Londres),ahora lo que nos frena un poco es la baja del USDARS desde mi punto de vista, pero hasta que se estabilice este.Gracias a todos los que opinaron, los leí desde la primer página y es muy importante por que me cuesta encontrar info en internet.
Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear
Parecía que se desinflaba pero sigue firme 
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