Re: TVPP TVPA TVPY Cupones Vinculados al PBI
Publicado: Mié Oct 27, 2010 9:43 pm
Argentine bonds, By James Mackintosh
Markets may not bear a grudge but they know their enemies. Néstor Kirchner, who died on Wednesday, was one of them: the man who oversaw the biggest debt restructuring in history, forcing bondholders to take a two-thirds loss on $82bn or so of Argentine bonds.
That Argentine bonds soared could be seen as a slap in the face for Mr Kirchner’s widow, Cristina. In fact, it reflects the likely reaction of Mrs Kirchner, who succeeded her husband as president. It is now, investors think, less likely a Kirchner will stand in next year’s election.
This is good news for Argentine bonds, which missed out on the emerging market rally thanks to the long dispute between the Kirchners and holdout bondholders, who only settled this year. (The biggest holdout, Robert Koenigsberger, head of hedge fund Gramercy, was smuggled into the central bank via the garage for secret negotiations with the finance minister so Mr Kirchner did not find out that talks were under way.)
Investors tempted by Argentine bonds still face political uncertainty. But Argentina is not expensive: the five-year dollar bond yields 8.12 per cent.
The same cannot be said of other emerging market bonds. Anyone worried that US Treasuries look overpriced should consider Indonesia’s dollar bonds. The 10-year trades at just 1 percentage point above its US equivalent, thanks to indiscriminate inflows of cash. Emerging markets in general have benefited from the search for yield, with bonds and credit default swaps at their lowest since the 2007 peak of the credit bubble.
Indonesia, like many other emerging markets, has a healthy economy and is far better run than it used to be. But at these prices, investors are betting that recent stability will last and liquidity does not slosh out as quickly as it washed in. They may be right, but like other emerging markets, Indonesia is priced for perfection.
Markets may not bear a grudge but they know their enemies. Néstor Kirchner, who died on Wednesday, was one of them: the man who oversaw the biggest debt restructuring in history, forcing bondholders to take a two-thirds loss on $82bn or so of Argentine bonds.
That Argentine bonds soared could be seen as a slap in the face for Mr Kirchner’s widow, Cristina. In fact, it reflects the likely reaction of Mrs Kirchner, who succeeded her husband as president. It is now, investors think, less likely a Kirchner will stand in next year’s election.
This is good news for Argentine bonds, which missed out on the emerging market rally thanks to the long dispute between the Kirchners and holdout bondholders, who only settled this year. (The biggest holdout, Robert Koenigsberger, head of hedge fund Gramercy, was smuggled into the central bank via the garage for secret negotiations with the finance minister so Mr Kirchner did not find out that talks were under way.)
Investors tempted by Argentine bonds still face political uncertainty. But Argentina is not expensive: the five-year dollar bond yields 8.12 per cent.
The same cannot be said of other emerging market bonds. Anyone worried that US Treasuries look overpriced should consider Indonesia’s dollar bonds. The 10-year trades at just 1 percentage point above its US equivalent, thanks to indiscriminate inflows of cash. Emerging markets in general have benefited from the search for yield, with bonds and credit default swaps at their lowest since the 2007 peak of the credit bubble.
Indonesia, like many other emerging markets, has a healthy economy and is far better run than it used to be. But at these prices, investors are betting that recent stability will last and liquidity does not slosh out as quickly as it washed in. They may be right, but like other emerging markets, Indonesia is priced for perfection.
y mas vale que le arrimen rapido el chori y el totin 