Aleajacta, este articulo es sobre lo que hablabamos hace un tiempo...
saludos,
Parrafos interesantes:
Another indication that the rise in yields is due to a stronger economy can be seen in the chart below, which tracks the 10-year Treasury yield against the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Prices Paid Index—a proxy for the health of the manufacturing sector. There are few better examples of V-shaped recoveries than in the US manufacturing sector, and as you can clearly see, yields have moved up in lockstep with this improvement, as has been the case historically.
I can hear the reaction already: Isn't the rise in ISM "prices paid" just another sign that inflation is coming? Not necessarily, as you can see in the chart below, which shows a very loose relationship between the two and ample historical evidence that an increase in the prices paid index doesn't necessarily translate into rising core consumer price inflation.
t's generally believed that when interest rates are rising, stocks are falling and vice versa. The Leuthold Group recently did an interesting study on this and it confirmed my observations over the last decade: The relationship between bond yields and stock prices went topsy-turvy in the late1990s—since then, rising yields have generally been met with rising stock prices.
The late 1990s brought a Russian debt default and the collapse of hedge fund Long Term Capital Management; two critical deflationary episodes. After the inflation of World War II was broken, there was a persistent fear that the economy would "underheat," with slumping business conditions leading to falling interest rates and declining inflation (and a few months of outright deflation in the mid-1950s).
You can see this period in the middle of the chart below, which also highlights the renewed ascent in correlation between yields and stock prices during the past decade. The deflationary 1930s was the other period during which the traditional relationship between the two had broken down.
Los charts en:
http://www.schwab.com/public/schwab/res ... et_insight
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