Explica muy claramente la lucha de hoy
200 day SMA: 1,108
38.2% Fibonacci Retracement up: 1,109
Prior price resistance: 1,105
“Round number”: 1,110
Major inflection points – like this – in the markets are like soldiers lined up on a battlefield. We don’t know which army will cross the line, but once a line is crossed, the battle dynamics change.
Bears – who prefer tight stops – will rush to cover (buy back their short-sold positions) on a break above 1,110 when the market starts to tick to 1,111, 1,112, 1,113 as they feel the pain of monetary loss.
Bulls, on the other hand, see this is a potentially early place to get long with a low-risk, tight stop (under 1,110) to try to play not only a range breakout, but a break above a known confluence resistance level.
Of course, bears are putting on short-positions expecting price to hold under 1,110.
If buyers push the bears to cover, we will likely see a “Popped Stops” play. That’s a positive feedback loop where bulls rush to buy the breakout and bears rush to protect losses by ‘buying back’ their shares – a classic short-squeeze of sorts.
The alternative is that buyers fail to overcome sellers here, and price remains within the established trading range and heads back to 1,040… and bears would defend their ‘turf’ on the battlefield.
The other – less pleasant for everyone – outcome would be a “Bull Trap,” wherein bears would cover above 1,110, bulls would buy a breakout, and then price would sink right back into the trading range.
That’s why a lot of traders like to see price clearly breakout and stay out – close one or two days – rather than rush to buy an index tick of 1,111, 1,112, etc.
Whatever your play, watch closely what happens here. Very closely. Keep everything in terms of “Risk/Reward”/probabilities rather than absolute certainties.
Mas en
http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/here-we-g ... -breakout/
