VALE Vale

[valiant]

y si,entusiasma la posibilidad de un buen balance en vale, al que s ele agreguen algunas monedas por tipo de cambio.

[Dostoievsky]

Hay fuerzas en juego como discutiamos acá, hay dinero necesitando entrar a brasil y ya sin la liquidacion gruesa sigue apreciandose el brl...gana la entrada.

[Dostoievsky]

Lo de los bancos señaliza bien...arrancaron up y se llevaron a pbr... estoy contento por lo q tengo allá y unos lotes de la 54 q tenia.

Pero nunca puede ser completa, falta vale jejeje...

En cuanto al T.C. no lo veo en 2,92. El central en 3 para mi recorta de nuevo los swaps.

Lo fenomenal es que banque abajo de 3,2 para vale...y mas abajo si se puede para pbr...de la cual lleve temprano agosto.

[valiant]

dosto,con que vaya a 2.92 tenemos casi un 6% de arriba....

[Dostoievsky]

USDBRLDaily.png (41.13 KiB) Visto 360 veces

[valiant]

sin el dia de hoy,ojo.
está fluctuando debajo de 3.10 ahora....

veremos si se va confirmando la ruptura incipiente.
podemos tener el real a 2.90 aprox,una suba del 6% en los adr sin moverse en brasil.

[miguel angel]

ojo si sube el contao bajan los adr. argentinos

[valiant]

sin el dia de hoy,ojo.
está fluctuando debajo de 3.10 ahora....

[miguel angel]

reboto antes de 6.30 puede ser piso tendria que cerrar arriba de 6.5.me parece ue esta cocinado lo de grecia suba fuerte de mercados y os grandes venden lo que afanaron barato.

[diego0708]

bien el real, rompiendo el piso del ultimo canalcito devaluatorio,aunque muy marginalmente por ahora.

tenes un grafico??

estoy siguiendo SID para timbearla

y me gusta BBD

[valiant]

bien el real, rompiendo el piso del ultimo canalcito devaluatorio,aunque muy marginalmente por ahora.

[valiant]

3 mangos de spread con pbr... tiene q empezar a tirar.

mepa que esta tiene un comportamiento tipo retrasado.
no en vano la otra vez pude vender pbr cerca de 9 y comprar vale abajo de 6.
en fin,pintaba salir "ya" pero se demora....

[Dostoievsky]

Se aprende, al que le interese sugiero leerlo con atencion, salu2

[CHIQUI1]

Dosto, y es bueno o malo jajaj?

[Dostoievsky]

Dear Tangerine,



I am so sorry for the delay! I was travelling with limited access to my email account for the last 2 weeks… Let me answer your questions.

Please, tell me if you have any other questions or if the explanation below was not clear.



Best regards, Claudia





1) On the goldstream transaction i see 230musd on 1q15 cashed, does that mean that there are 670 to be taked as earnings on future quarters? just like was done whit the 230? Is that happening this year?

The goldstream transaction involved the sale of an additional 25% of our gold which is a byproduct of Salobo copper mine, for the life of the mine. We received an initial cash payment of US$900 million and we will receive future cash payments for each ounce of gold delivered to Silver Wheaton equal to the lesser of 400$ per oz (plus 1% annual adjustment from 2017 to compensate inflation) and the prevailing market price.

From the $900 million, $230 million decreased our base metals expenses, so it improved our base metals ebitda, $138 million was the book value of the asset, $532 million accounted for as deferred revenues and it will be recognized in the base metals ebitda over time.



2) On the sale of the vlocs, 4 were delivered, are the proceeds going to appear as earnings on divestments this quarter?

The othe four...will receibe the same conditions? How many vlocs are left after this 8 go on sale?

We owned 19 valemax before selling 4 to Cosco in the end of May by US$ 445 million, this amount will be received by Vale upon delivering of the vessels to Cosco which is expected to happen in June. We also signed a cooperation agreement with CMES (China Merchants Energy Shipping) which involves the sale of 4 more valemax, this transaction is expected to be concluded in the coming months.



So, 19 – 4 (to cosco) = 15 for now. The agreement with China Merchant is still under discussion, we don’t have a price for the deal, but it will probably go around the same: ~100million per vloc.



You are not going to see this gain in our earnings report because there were no gain in the sale of the assets. We are selling the vessels by their book value. So we are just moving values between different assets in our balance sheet.



It is important for you to know that although we own 15 valemax, you should considerer that there are 35 valemax in operation. Each valemax carries 1.5Mt of iron ore per year.



3)On the conference i think luciano said there were advanced talks on the issue of stock on the bas metals division, are there any news on that front?

Regarding the base metals, we continue to develop the IPO idea. But we expect to reach some conditions before doing it:

1. we want to have the base metals assets operating in full capacity or at least close to it. We still have Salobo (in Brazil), Long Harbor (in Canada) and VNC (in New Caledonia) ramping up.

2. we also would like to make the deal under a more favorable base metals prices, particularly for nickel.

Also, have in mind that with the IPO we will be selling only 30% of our business.





4) On the 1q15 presentation, the slide about the price realization on iron ore shows 7,2 usd as freight, is that the average cost of freight of all the sales of vale in the quarter, including that made in to the Brazilian market? I know that the freigth to china is at 17,8-19,5 usd/t...so that slide bring me some doubts.

This slide has been bringing some doubts. It seems the freight cost was 7$/t, but that is not the case.



Our freight cost for iron ore in 1Q15 was US$ 628 million and you can consider an extra US$ 84 million which was the cost of bunker oil hedge (bunker is the oil used in vessels). Just for your reference these numbers are on page 21 of our Earnings Report 1Q15, Iron ore COGS table. So total cost was US$ 712 million.



We sell ~60% of our iron ore on CFR basis (the remaining 40% are FOB sales), so from the 62Mt of iron ore sales, only 36.6Mt is accounted as a freight cost for vale.



So, cost for ton in 1Q15 was 19.5 $/t. Again for your reference you can see this value on page 22.



Now, let me explain the chart on the presentation. The reference price of iron ore is the price in China. The 62.4$/dmt is the average iron ore price in 1Q15 of dry metric tons in China. The bars following this average are showing the amounts we lost or gained due to some condition.

Thinking about the freight, consider that:

1. our realized price was 46$/t, and it includes CFR and FOB sales.

2. From the FOB sales we charge prices with a discount of freight as we are not providing the service.

3. The freight used to give the discount comes from a contract, so it may not reflect the current market conditions. Our freight cost in contracts have been around 20$/t which can be adjusted according to bunker oil fluctuations.

4. Considering that freight cost was 20$/t, and we sold 38% on FOB basis, we had a discount of ~7.5$/t in our price.



Just as an illustration, if we sell 100% on FOB basis, we would have revenues which accounted for iron ore prices at the ports in Brazil, which would probably be estimated with a discount over the reference price in China due to the freight cost to bring the product to China. On the other hand, if we sell 100% on CFR basis, our prices would have only discounts due to humidity, quality, and price adjustments due to different types of contracts. So what lead us to adjust to the freight is our FOB sales.



Wich are the average costs of freight on nickel as well?

Regarding the freight cost of nickel it is irrelevant compared to the nickel price. But I do not have this number here. I will ask to someone and come back to you.





5)The average of prices in the first 45 days of q2, was higher than the 51,4 provisionally taken on q1 for 45% of the sales?

Yes, the average price on the first 45 days was 56.9 US$/ton; of course the real price for each transaction will depend exactly on the day that the vessel berthed in China, but you can consider the higher average a good indicator of a gain in this quarter.