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Pego el principio..
Target GGAl usd 40
Argentina Financial Institutions
Remain Bullish; Policy Change Offers
Meaningful Upside
Upcoming presidentialelection represents catalyst for valuecreation.
A movetoward orthodoxand market-friendly economic policies
should result in faster bancarization.Stocks still tradeat significant
discount to Latam averages.
Expect positive changes to macro and regulatory policies as a result of
upcoming presidential election. Our investment thesis on Argentine banks
is playing out. As the market prices in a favorableelection outcome,and the
economic normalization that should ensue, bank stocks haverallied
significantly, up 130-190% over thelast 12 months.Wethink thereis still
meaningful upside.Weareraising our estimates by 10-17% and pricetargets
130-180%; wesee 42-58% potential return.
Valuation remains attractive despite strong performance. Based on
franchisevalue, still our favored tool to asses valuation in Argentina, the banks
are pricing in a discount of 35-65% relativeto Latam peers.These discounts
look very attractiverelativeto the opportunities banks offer. Argentina is the
third largesteconomy in Latam,yet one of theleast penetrated banking
markets. If the political/macro scenario weenvision plays out, Argentina could
bethefastest-growing banking market in theregion.
