Mensajepor rusell007 » Mar Jun 18, 2019 2:08 am
BUEN RINDE VEN VARIOS A TRANSENER Y VARIAS ENERGETICAS EN GENERAL-
SANTANDER A LA CABEZA EN EL INFORME QUE PRESENTO HOY Y QUE LAMENTABLEMENTE NO LO DEJAN CARGAR EN RAVA-
CAMBIEN RAVA A WINDOWS 10 POR FAVOR,,,,YA ESTE PROBLEMA LO TUVE HACE UN MES ATRAS Y SE LOS COMENTE.
POR ESO LO PASE A WORD PARA USTEDES.....ESTA EN INGLES---
PERO SOBRE TRANSENER DICE-----remains in the top position----O sea permanece en la posicion superior de recomendacion-
PUEDEN UTILIZARLO TAMBIEN PARA OTRAS ACCIONES QUE NOMBRA EL INFORME TIPO CEPU U OTRAS DE SU AGRADO
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Santander Corporate& Investment Banking
LATIN AMERICAN EQUITY RESEARCH
17 JUNE 2019
ARGENTINA STRATEGY WEEKLY MOOD: DON'T STOP ME NOW
Strategy Report I Argentina
Walter Chiarvesio. Antonella Rapuano. Argentina: Santander Rio Valores. S.A. Argentina. Santander Rio Valores. S.A. +541,4341-1564 wchiarvesiogsantanderrio.com.ar +5411-5443-6278 ! mrapuano1.8,antanderrio.com.ar
Miguel Orgoroso. Argentina: Santander Rio Valores. S.A. +5411-4341-1909 ! morgorososantanderno.com a
Net/Net: Argentine ADRs. bonds and the ARS all reacted positively to Macri's selection of Miguel Angel Pichetto as his running mate. We continue to see positive momentum despite a reasonable amount of profit-taking after many ADRs reached new YTD peaks (the MSCI ARG is up 40.0% since April 29 and 22.6% YTD). Despite our constructive view, we think that there are more reasons to be selective at this price level: (i) our sector preference remains Utilities. and we shift our preference to CEPU from Pampa, due to last week's performance (PAM rose 18.2% WoW, while CEPU was up 8.4% WoW). EDN is also moving up in our DCF-based upside potential ranking, following its poor YTD performance driven by bottom-up fundamentals, in our view, TRAN's remains in the top position, but only listed in BA. (ii) We think that banks like GGAL and BMA are now trading at too-tight valuations (2.9x and 2.7x PBV2019E, respectively) and we continue to prefer SUPV and BFR in the sector.
• Final tickets determined: We expect polarization to continue favoring Cambiemos, as we wait to see how polls react to the announced tickets (in particular, we are curious to the reaction to the Lavagna-Urtubey ticket, which was somewhat unexpected. We believe that this ticket could take votes from Cambiemos rather than from Unidad Ciudadana. Final ticket follow: (i) Juntos pot el Cambio (Macri-Pichetto), (ii) Frente de Todos (Fernandez-Fernandez); (iii) Consenso Federal 2030 (Lavagna-Urtubey): (iv) Despertar (Espert-TBC), and (v) Frente de Izquierda Unida (Del Cano-Del Pla).
• Inflation decelerated in May but did not surprise the market. May's welcomed and unsurprising 3.1% MoM inflation met the Central Bank's (CB) survey expectations. Looking ahead, our economists expect 2.5%MoM for June: a stable FX could help June inflation decelerate further amid the continuously tight monetary policy and lower impact on tradable goods. The official figure, the last before August 11 primaries, will be released by mid-July.
• Lower policy rates still at high levels in real terms: The 66.70% policy rate accelerated its downward pace to 83 bps/day in the last week from a previous 31 bps/day in the previous week. We believe that ARS appreciation following the announcement of the Macri-Pichetto ticket led the CB to further reduce the rate. Nominal term deposit interest rates ranged 50-55% during May, implying 1.3% monthly real rates (17% annualized). In our view, the CB will keep real rates high ahead of the electoral period as long as uncertainty prevails in the FX market. The nominal policy interest rate would move in line with the inflation expectation but always monitoring the FX market, in our view. A word on bank profitability: The acceleration of nominal rate declines could hurt 3Q19E NIMs for banks under coverage, following a strong expected NIM for 2Q19 due to the opposite reason.
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