OGZD Gazprom Cedear

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oudine2
Mensajes: 309
Registrado: Mar Sep 06, 2016 6:55 pm

Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear

Mensajepor oudine2 » Mié Mar 21, 2018 5:39 pm

Realmente no sé cuál puede llegar a ser el cisne negro. Se ve tan pero TAN prometedor el papel. Y la única respuesta que encuentro a por qué se mantiene tan barato es que realmente las finanzas internacionales no le dan bola, no le hacen mucho seguimiento ni nada. Si uno busca información de Gazprom no hay mucho por ningún lado.
Cumple con varios de los requisitos de empresa perfecta para Peter Lynch:
-Cualquiera la puede manejar (no necesita un excelente management ni nada por el estilo)
-Es una empresa aburrida (vende gas, punto).
-Beneficios, beneficios beneficios
-Ningún geniecito puede copiar el modelo y ponerse a vender gas como competencia
-Constante crecimiento de algo que todo el mundo necesita y va a seguir necesitando por varios años más
-Reparte dividendos

En fin, vamos a ver hasta cuando podremos seguir acumulando a estos precios, y veremos si por fin en 2019/2020 vemos la tan ansiada explosión (de precio :115: )

https://seekingalpha.com/article/415809 ... of=45&dr=1

Christmas In March For Gazprom

Less than two weeks ago I wrote an article about the European deep freeze that arrived in late February, making it unusually cold for the continent just as winter was supposed to be ending. At the end of winter natural gas storage facilities tend to be depleted, so Europe started importing natural gas massively from the only supplier with spare capacity and an ability to respond on a short notice. That supplier is of course Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY). On March 1st it set a new one day record in gas deliveries to non CIS countries in Europe of 710 million cubic meters. It was the ninth day of new all-time record deliveries in a row. Clearly, Gazprom came to the aid of Europe in a time of need. It is now set to do so again given another week of unusually cold weather for this time of year. I do believe that the benefits that Gazprom is set to reap from the weather Europe experienced and continues to experience this month will extend into the whole year and beyond.

2018 is likely to be another record year for Gazprom exports.
As I pointed out in my previous article regarding the first late February, to early March deep freeze that Europe experienced, late February tends to be the time when spring weather arrives for most inhabitants of the continent, aside from perhaps the Scandinavian countries. Instead, they got a roughly ten day period of what most Europeans consider to be severe winter conditions. So, while ordinarily this time of year it might already be the start of the period when natural gas storage facilities might start to get filled or at least stop declining, instead it will be a period of further draw-downs.

As we can see, the month of March typically sees a more or less complete cessation of natural gas draw downs. While this year, it is set to keep going, possibly reaching actual full depletion by the end of the month, even as Gazrprom is continuing to pump gas at rates that are higher than usual. I should point out that even the 2017 level of gas in storage was considered to be rather low by historical standards, therefore we can expect demand for natural gas to remain strong throughout the year, given the seemingly depleted reserves in storage. Based on what we know so far, it seems that this year may be another year of record Gazprom sales to Europe, which would make it the third year in a row at this point.

I should also note the fact that given the significantly higher price of oil which in the Old World tends to affect the price of longer term pipeline gas contracts that are tied to the price of oil, Gazprom is likely to not only see higher export volumes but also higher natural gas prices.



As we can see, following the 2014-2015 shock to the system that Gazprom received, just like most other oil & gas producers, it managed to recover back into profitability rather nicely. I should mention that the devalued Russian Ruble played a significant role in this, because Gazprom's exports are valued in Dollars or Euros. But such is the advantage of a country having its own currency, which it can adjust to its needs, or the market will adjust it, as was the case with Russia.

Beyond 2018.
As I already pointed out in my first article on this subject, when the late February winter weather hit Europe, the odds of current Gazprom pipeline projects to Europe being obstructed seemed very low already. Surely European leaders have come to realize that continuing to depend on Ukraine as a transit country for the only source of natural gas that can be relied upon to be delivered on short notice may not be a wise choice. We should keep in mind that natural gas flows through Ukraine were disrupted on two occasions, both times in winter, due to a Ukraine-Russian pricing & payments dispute. Every time Russia decided to stop delivering gas to Ukraine due to the disputes, Ukraine decided to remove the gas from the pipeline unilaterally, causing Russia to shut down the pipeline.

The Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which at this point seems to be a done deal was still on occasion targeted for obstruction attempted by some factions in the EU. Given the bad news in regards to Netherlands natural gas production which half a decade ago made up about half of all EU domestic supply is in free-fall, at least a portion of that 55 Bcm/year of extra natural gas capacity that the new pipeline will bring, will go to making up for the loss of Netherlands production. The rest will go to increased demand, which I see happening once Germany decommissions more nuclear power plants, as well as perhaps reducing reliance on Ukraine as a transit country to some extent. I doubt that Ukraine will cease to be a transit country for Russian gas any time soon, but a much-reduced role now seems inevitable. It will just gradually lose its strategic importance in this respect.

**** Stream will further reduce reliance on Ukraine as a transit country. It still remains to be seen what role it will play in supplying natural gas to the EU, but its role in supplying Turkey is set, meaning that pretty much all natural gas exports to Turkey will now flow directly to its shores. At present Turkey still receives some gas via Ukraine, but it already has the blue stream pipeline, which supplies Turkey with 16 Bcm/year. At the very least, it will be feeling more secure in knowing that its gas supplies will never depend on whether Ukraine & Russia can get along or not.

Same cannot be said about other countries, especially in Central Europe. Hungary is set to run out of natural gas in storage within days, with on-going Gazprom supplies being the only lifeline thereafter. But at the moment all of Gazprom's gas supply to central Europe flows through Ukraine. In effect, Hungary and many other countries in the region will be literally praying for no friction between Ukraine & Russia for the next few weeks. If a repeat of the 2006 or 2009 crisis were to happen right now, it would be a disaster, given the lack of reserves in storage. For this reason, I believe that many of these countries will lobby hard for the EU to refrain from obstructing a connection to the Turkstream project, which would give them an alternative route to Ukraine. Many of these countries would have had this extra level of energy security if the EU would have not obstructed the South Stream project and I have no doubt that they are thinking of that right now. I don't believe that the EU will want to be blamed in the future for member states running out of gas at any point in time, because it selectively blocked pipeline projects. There is already enough acrimony at this point on a range of other issues.

Aside from the new pipelines to Europe, there is of course the pipeline to China, the new LNG facilities, as well as a range of other projects and project opportunities that seem to suggest Gazprom has a bright future ahead. In the end, it is sitting on massive reserves of a fuel that is set to be in very high demand as the world tries to do its best to at the very least stem the growth in coal use in order to try to fight climate change, as well as a range of local environmental issues associated with burning coal. In this respect, in my view there was never any reasonable doubt in regards to Gazprom looking at a bright future. What has been occasionally questioned, perhaps for good reason is the shorter to medium term outlook, as Gazprom seemed poised to become a victim of geopolitical events. Even before this month, it was starting to look more and more like it is not the case. For the month of March of this year, weather patterns came together to unmask the true reality of Europe's natural gas supply security. As storage facilities run empty Gazprom is not only cashing in this year, as the only supplier which has the ability to respond on short notice, but is set to cement its status as the indispensable supplier of gas for the old continent.

Braulio_de_Glamoc
Mensajes: 551
Registrado: Lun Mar 09, 2015 9:11 pm

Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear

Mensajepor Braulio_de_Glamoc » Jue Mar 15, 2018 7:16 pm

Esa pretensión de pagar 50 % de las ganancias en dividendos no se cumple en los últimos años y en los próximos no se va a poder cumplir porque la empresa está haciendo muchas inversiones y necesita poner dinero ahí.
De todos modos ES MEJOR que distribuya poco, porque los dividendos están gravados al 35 % entre Rusia y Argentina y las reinversiones no. Cuanto menos dividendo pague y más reinvierta más gana el accionista.

oudine2
Mensajes: 309
Registrado: Mar Sep 06, 2016 6:55 pm

Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear

Mensajepor oudine2 » Mié Mar 07, 2018 9:47 pm

En junio históricamente se anuncian los dividendos, sólo una vez en los últimos años se anunciaron en abril. Estuve revisando los últimos años y me topé con noticias de que Rusia quería que las empresas estatales paguen el 50% de las ganancias en dividendos ya que el Estado las necesita para su presupuesto. Me permito acá entonces hacer una disgresión filosófica-política...

En Rusia una empresa como Gazprom:
1) Gana plata y es necesaria para financiar el estado
2) Una de sus ventajas competitivas es que tiene salarios muy competitivos.
3) El gas en toda Rusia está subsidiado por lo cual las ganancias provienen principalmente de la exportación a Europa.

En cambio en Argentina:

1) Las empresas estatales pierden plata, necesitan del estado para subsistir
2) Los trabajadores ganan fortunas, muchas veces mucho mejor que en el sector privado
3) Ya sea aviones, nafta o lo que sea, terminan siendo productos carísimos mucho más caros que si se adquiriesen en el exterior.

Y con todo esto no quiero defender el modelo ruso, pero simplemente acá no hay modelo, es un invento total sobre la marcha que no tiene absolutamente ningún asidero con la realidad.

oudine2
Mensajes: 309
Registrado: Mar Sep 06, 2016 6:55 pm

Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear

Mensajepor oudine2 » Dom Mar 04, 2018 3:26 am

Viene bien enquilombada la cuestión acá. Gazprom cortó los suministros de gas a Ucrania y Ucrania va a demandar por abuso de posición monopolista y por las pérdidas. Hubo escasez de gas en Ucrania.
Va a haber buenas oportunidades para acumular acá... Mientras siga trayendo ganancias y pueda sobrevivir la empresa cosa que no creo que tenga problemas, tarde o temprano va a rendir MUY buenos frutos. Paciencia y más paciencia.

kelui
Mensajes: 4336
Registrado: Vie Nov 12, 2010 12:20 pm

Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear

Mensajepor kelui » Vie Mar 02, 2018 2:35 pm

es el problema de las empresas rusas, no tienen mucha muñeca política y hacen los que se les canta sin importarles las futuras sanciones, algo parecido pasó hace unos dias en NILSY donde se pelearon por el control de la empresa y cayó 15% en un día.

lamentablemente esta es para tradearla y sacarle 6/7% fácil a pesar de ser una empresa que paga dividendos es muy volatil

oudine2
Mensajes: 309
Registrado: Mar Sep 06, 2016 6:55 pm

Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear

Mensajepor oudine2 » Vie Mar 02, 2018 1:06 pm

Hoy salieron varias novedades, en resumen las cosas a destacar son:

1) Europa depende de Rusia para el gas. En medio del gran frío que se sufrió esta última semana Rusia da estabilidad energética frente al gas licuado de EEUU y otras alternativas. Hubo récord tras récord y Gazprom no tuvo problemas en lidiar con el suministro. La necesidad del Nord Stream 2 es manifiesta.

2) Las tensiones entre Ucrania y Rusia son un gran problema, y a todo esto se suma Estocolmo dándole la razón a Ucrania con lo que Gazprom debería desembolsar 2.64 mil millones de U$S. Más allá del monto que no es tan importante, el problema geopolítico viene dado porque Rusia quiere usar al gas como arma política pero cualquier intento se ve frenado por leyes europeas que frenan el uso de posición monopólica dominante, entonces hay grandes tensiones al respecto.

Dejo las notas:

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles ... line-power

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... m-ceo-says

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... rian-chill

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... it-by-cold

oudine2
Mensajes: 309
Registrado: Mar Sep 06, 2016 6:55 pm

Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear

Mensajepor oudine2 » Vie Mar 02, 2018 2:06 am

kelui escribió:ayer cerré mi posición del ADR en 5,06 me dio mala espina como viene, europa bajo cero y gazprom baja? no tiene lógica pero la siguen matando


Perdió un arbitraje Gazprom contra la compañía ucraniana por lo que debería pagar 2.56 mil millones de U$S... Es el 5% de su market cap. Y algo así como un 20% de sus ganancias... Así que es algo fuerte. Era una posibilidad, siempre lo presentan en sus balances. Y todavía hay riesgos por parte de otros países.

https://www.ukrinform.es/rubric-economy ... colmo.html

https://mundo.sputniknews.com/economia/ ... m-energia/

Y en el medio Gazprom suspende envíos de gas a Ucrania...
Estos son los riegos inherentes a esta inversión, aún así con todas estas cosas sigue ganando una barbaridad de plata con un PER bajísimo, pero siempre pueden ir aumentando estos problemas (cosa que supongo están descontadas) así que tenemos todo el upside si se solucionan o si sigue todo bien o si los nuevos proyectos salen bien, etc etc.

Fabricio
Mensajes: 363
Registrado: Mié Dic 16, 2015 10:35 am

Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear

Mensajepor Fabricio » Jue Mar 01, 2018 12:33 pm

oudine2 escribió:Creo que siguen con miedo al riesgo geopolítico... Hoy Putin estuvo presentando armamento y China habla de un portaaviones nuclear...
Ahora arranca la temporada de dividendos en Rusia. Es una acción para esperarla con mucha paciencia, creo que 2020 es la fecha en la cual podremos decir realmente si fue una buena inversión o no.

Si Gazprom viene a operar a Fernandez oro en Rio negro, asociado con YPF como se anunció, voy a poder tener algún contacto a ver cómo labura la empresa y porqué no conocer gente de la empresa. Me genera expectativa, lo que sí puedo decir, es que los rusos tienen una situación geográfica y cantidad de gas envidiable. Los gasoductos (de los tres grandes proyectos) tampoco son caños como los de tenaris convencionales, están hechos con una tecnología propia con nano materiales, para que no tengan problemas de mantenimiento. Con un Per de 4, que ya se viene hablando hace meses, me llama la atención que un gigante como este haya ganado capaz el 10 o 15 % de su propio capital desde esos chats.

Veremos...

oudine2
Mensajes: 309
Registrado: Mar Sep 06, 2016 6:55 pm

Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear

Mensajepor oudine2 » Jue Mar 01, 2018 12:11 pm

kelui escribió:ayer cerré mi posición del ADR en 5,06 me dio mala espina como viene, europa bajo cero y gazprom baja? no tiene lógica pero la siguen matando


Creo que siguen con miedo al riesgo geopolítico... Hoy Putin estuvo presentando armamento y China habla de un portaaviones nuclear...
Ahora arranca la temporada de dividendos en Rusia. Es una acción para esperarla con mucha paciencia, creo que 2020 es la fecha en la cual podremos decir realmente si fue una buena inversión o no.

Fabricio
Mensajes: 363
Registrado: Mié Dic 16, 2015 10:35 am

Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear

Mensajepor Fabricio » Jue Mar 01, 2018 11:08 am

kelui escribió:ayer cerré mi posición del ADR en 5,06 me dio mala espina como viene, europa bajo cero y gazprom baja? no tiene lógica pero la siguen matando


Quebró los 5...si sigue bajando compro más, además de los fundamentos de la empresa me gusta para salir del riesgo argentino que no me gusta para nada lo que estoy viendo.

Fabricio
Mensajes: 363
Registrado: Mié Dic 16, 2015 10:35 am

Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear

Mensajepor Fabricio » Jue Mar 01, 2018 11:03 am

Buen artículo oudine2 :respeto:

Por lo que entiendo los futuros de comodities en el gas se venden a dos meses hacia adelante, hoy está 2.663 las ventas abril 2018. Hay ventas que entre el 11 y 30/01 se vendió entre 3.11 y 3.53 U$$. Me parece que ahí se hizo el negocio, los que apostaron a un alto consumo en estos meses y se pagó hasta un 32% más del valor actual. Me parece que debería tener un buen impacto en el balance de la empresa ya que si vende más gas por el frio y a buen precio.

kelui
Mensajes: 4336
Registrado: Vie Nov 12, 2010 12:20 pm

Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear

Mensajepor kelui » Jue Mar 01, 2018 10:19 am

ayer cerré mi posición del ADR en 5,06 me dio mala espina como viene, europa bajo cero y gazprom baja? no tiene lógica pero la siguen matando

oudine2
Mensajes: 309
Registrado: Mar Sep 06, 2016 6:55 pm

Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear

Mensajepor oudine2 » Mié Feb 28, 2018 2:54 pm

Buen artículo que sigue diciendo lo que más o menos sabemos, que es una empresa barata, está el riesgo geopolítico siempre presente, hay que esperar al 2020 a que se concreten los proyectos grandes, etc.

Como dos puntos a destacar: 1) una vez finalizado el plazo de 2020 no hay grandes proyectos en carpeta, por lo cuál hay rumores de que puede arranar una fuerte recompra por parte del management. 2) Hay un firme compromiso a seguir pagando jugosos dividendos a pesar de las grandes inversiones que se están realizando, el dividendo está en torno al 5.5%.

Dejo el artículo de SeekingAlpha:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/415169 ... of=45&dr=1

Summary
25 years since the creation of Gazprom.

Project's update and CapEx forecast.

Possible buyback program and a high dividend yield.


This year Gazprom (OTCPK:OGZPY) is 25 years old. Now, Gazprom is engaged in the construction of pipelines for gas exports to Europe and Asia. Investors do not much like the company and now it is trading at 4x its earnings. But in my opinion, 2018-2019 should bring changes in the mood of investors. Firstly, due to the completion of construction projects happening soon and an announced buyback program.

Gazprom is a Russian transnational energy corporation. The state controls over 50% of the shares. It's one of the world's largest energy companies, according to S&P Global Platts.

The share of available gas reserves is 17% of the world and 72% of the Russian supplies. Gazprom accounts for 11% of the world and 66% of Russian gas production. It has a monopoly on the export of pipeline gas in Russia.

Projects
Gazprom is engaged in the construction of several pipelines, which greatly affects the CapEx of the company. Almost every day there are various news reports about problems with this construction. At the same time, the potential of these pipelines is huge, and after construction, it will allow Gazprom to increase its free cash flow.

Nord Stream-2

One of the most important projects for the company, the launch is planned for the end of 2019. According to management forecasts, this project will bring an additional $1 billion of EBITDA as a cost reduction compared to supplies received through Ukraine. Also, just a few days ago, there was information that Germany had allowed the construction of this turbine pipeline on its territory. And as chairman of the board - Alexey Miller says, other countries will follow the example of Germany.

Turkish Stream

This project is completed by half and the launch is planned for 2019. In total, the project is estimated at $7 billion and has a strategic importance for gas supplies to Turkey and southern Europe.

Power of Siberia

The project is coming to an end and the launch is planned for December 2019. This project will open a completely new market for Gazprom - the Chinese market.

Financials
In 2017, the company steadily increased its revenue from quarter to quarter and this dynamic should continue in 2018 due to the increased demand from Europe. Gazprom will be able to cover all the demand for several years ahead due to the presence of huge gas reserves, so the company expects a stable year from the position of revenue.

Due to the completion of most projects, 2018 will be a record year for the company in terms of CapEx, and management expects to reach 1.5 trillion rubles (about $25 billion) in 2018 and 1.6 trillion rubles in 2019. And if there is no change in the conditions for the construction of pipelines with the participating countries and some of the other factors to increase the cost of projects, Gazprom will be able to show a small positive cash flow as soon as the next two years.

At the same time, Gazprom does not plan any very large projects for the period after 2019, which makes it possible to guarantee a huge free cash flow.

Valuation
It's not a secret that Gazprom is one of the cheapest companies in the world and its P/E is 4x. The chart above shows the largest companies from the Oil and Gas sector, and Gazprom is several times cheaper than its competitors even in terms of EV/EBITDA despite the increased debt. The main reason for this undervaluation is the forecasts for the huge CapEx in the coming years. At the same time, as I said above, in the absence of serious political turmoil, the company's capital expenditures will bring a huge free cash flow after the completion of the construction of the projects. Therefore, despite all the negative, Gazprom is extremely cheap compared to its intrinsic value.

Dividends and Buyback
On February 20, information appeared that the board of directors would consider the possibility of a shares buyback. The meeting is scheduled for March 5, but the shares have already grown by 3% after the news. If the board of directors decides to buy back the shares, it will be a powerful signal that management believes in the future of the company and that the company is now undervalued. In this case, this buyback can be expected not earlier than 2020, after the completion of the investment projects.

Gazprom also steadily pays dividends and because of very long flat quotations, the company's shares are called "quasi-bond." Investors consistently have received a dividend yield close to 6% in recent years. And despite the huge CapEx, management promises to keep dividends at least at the level of last year. At the same time, as a dividend stock for your portfolio from the Russian Oil and Gas sector, it is possible to consider more profitable companies represented by Lukoil (OTCPK:LUKOY), Tatneft (OTCPK:OAOFY), or Gazprom's subsidiary Gazpromneft (OTCQX:GZPFY).

pipioeste22
Mensajes: 7835
Registrado: Mié Abr 22, 2015 7:22 pm

Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear

Mensajepor pipioeste22 » Lun Feb 26, 2018 10:26 am

kelui escribió:GAZPq volando en londres 5,21 apertura segura con GAP en el norte

que lindo sería si rompe 5,33 el ADR se volaría según mis proyecciones zona de $6 x ADR



:respeto:

kelui
Mensajes: 4336
Registrado: Vie Nov 12, 2010 12:20 pm

Re: OGZD Gazprom Cedear

Mensajepor kelui » Lun Feb 26, 2018 10:01 am

GAZPq volando en londres 5,21 apertura segura con GAP en el norte

que lindo sería si rompe 5,33 el ADR se volaría según mis proyecciones zona de $6 x ADR


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