APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

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Sonic
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Registrado: Mié Oct 18, 2017 2:36 am

Re: APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

Mensajepor Sonic » Mar Ene 23, 2024 1:28 pm

Inversor Pincharrata escribió: Aparte de Pbr y Vale.
Alguno invirtió en bancos brasileros, tienen las mismas retenciones de dividendos?
Gracias.-

Todos tienen las mismas retenciones , con los Cedears tenes 2 cuestiones impositivas ..
1-Las retenciones por los dividendos.
2-Pagas bienes personales.

Inversor Pincharrata
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Registrado: Mar Sep 08, 2009 5:21 pm

Re: APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

Mensajepor Inversor Pincharrata » Mar Ene 23, 2024 1:13 pm

sancho18 escribió: Estimado, el esquema de retencion en Brasil es el siguiente:
Los dividendos estan exentos.
Los pagos por intereses estan gravados con el 15 %.
Si los papeles los compras via cedears, tenes una retencion de Comafi del 6% en la mayoria de los casos en concepto de comision.
Si los papeles los compras afuera, via adrs, practicamente no hay descuento por comision.
Eso es todo.
Si te liquidan menos, hay algun error y hay que reclamar.

Entonces todos los Cedears Brasileños son iguales en términos de dividendos.
Gracias.-

sancho18
Mensajes: 955
Registrado: Jue Sep 09, 2021 8:41 am

Re: APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

Mensajepor sancho18 » Mar Ene 23, 2024 7:19 am

Inversor Pincharrata escribió: Aparte de Pbr y Vale.
Alguno invirtió en bancos brasileros, tienen las mismas retenciones de dividendos?
Gracias.-

Estimado, el esquema de retencion en Brasil es el siguiente:
Los dividendos estan exentos.
Los pagos por intereses estan gravados con el 15 %.
Si los papeles los compras via cedears, tenes una retencion de Comafi del 6% en la mayoria de los casos en concepto de comision.
Si los papeles los compras afuera, via adrs, practicamente no hay descuento por comision.
Eso es todo.
Si te liquidan menos, hay algun error y hay que reclamar.

Inversor Pincharrata
Mensajes: 4037
Registrado: Mar Sep 08, 2009 5:21 pm

Re: APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

Mensajepor Inversor Pincharrata » Mar Ene 23, 2024 12:02 am

Aparte de Pbr y Vale.
Alguno invirtió en bancos brasileros, tienen las mismas retenciones de dividendos?
Gracias.-

resero
Mensajes: 16171
Registrado: Jue Ene 23, 2014 4:04 pm

Re: APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

Mensajepor resero » Lun Ene 22, 2024 11:13 am

Esta a valores pre pandemia cuando tenia todo para subir, ahora la compañia esta mucho mejor y saneada y siguen pisando las cotizacion, es increible realmente como esre papel no se dispara!!

Inversor Pincharrata
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Registrado: Mar Sep 08, 2009 5:21 pm

Re: APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

Mensajepor Inversor Pincharrata » Jue Ene 18, 2024 4:29 pm

sancho18 escribió: Estimado, en unos dias te va a llegar un adicional porque hay una diferencia a nuestro favor de aprox. 0.03 dolares por cedear.

:2230: :2230:

Llego 2,85 centavos.

Inversor Pincharrata
Mensajes: 4037
Registrado: Mar Sep 08, 2009 5:21 pm

Re: APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

Mensajepor Inversor Pincharrata » Jue Ene 18, 2024 4:12 pm

Me apareció el pedacito de dividendo, del que me habían hablado.
Una máquina.

resero
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Registrado: Jue Ene 23, 2014 4:04 pm

Re: APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

Mensajepor resero » Mié Ene 17, 2024 3:33 pm

Sonic escribió: jaja :lol: me rio porque siempre operamos similar, ahora quede 75% en Argentina -todo energia y un 25% en PBR por si Argentina vuelve a caer y estar algo cubierto con ese 25%
El grafico de PBR es espectacular, en cualquier momento sale, tal vez siga boludeando un rato mas por estos precios para descomprimir indicadores .... pero la suba sera furiosa :2230:

Es q la tenemos gratis c la gran jugada del 2016, tiene q ir saliendo creo q mucho mas no le falta, abrazo! :arriba:

Sonic
Mensajes: 655
Registrado: Mié Oct 18, 2017 2:36 am

Re: APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

Mensajepor Sonic » Mié Ene 17, 2024 2:15 pm

resero escribió: Estoy 25% de la cartera en PBR, unico cedear q tengo.

jaja :lol: me rio porque siempre operamos similar, ahora quede 75% en Argentina -todo energia y un 25% en PBR por si Argentina vuelve a caer y estar algo cubierto con ese 25%
El grafico de PBR es espectacular, en cualquier momento sale, tal vez siga boludeando un rato mas por estos precios para descomprimir indicadores .... pero la suba sera furiosa :2230:

resero
Mensajes: 16171
Registrado: Jue Ene 23, 2014 4:04 pm

Re: APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

Mensajepor resero » Mié Ene 17, 2024 12:07 pm

Marty escribió: yo duplique mi posicion aca, ahora es poco mas del 50% de mi cartera, con la idea de no venderla nunca mas :2230:

Estoy 25% de la cartera en PBR, unico cedear q tengo.

Marty
Mensajes: 377
Registrado: Sab Jun 20, 2020 2:06 am

Re: APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

Mensajepor Marty » Mar Ene 16, 2024 6:35 pm

yo duplique mi posicion aca, ahora es poco mas del 50% de mi cartera, con la idea de no venderla nunca mas :2230:

resero
Mensajes: 16171
Registrado: Jue Ene 23, 2014 4:04 pm

Re: APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

Mensajepor resero » Mar Ene 16, 2024 5:08 pm

Compre un 50% mas de la posicion que tenia antes de fin del 2023. Con idea de vender ese 50% cercano a los 19 dolares y quedarne con la posicion q siempre maneje.

sancho18
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Registrado: Jue Sep 09, 2021 8:41 am

Re: APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

Mensajepor sancho18 » Mar Ene 16, 2024 10:37 am

Conclusion

All in all, Petrobras stands out as a solid investment choice, combining operational excellence with financial resilience and a strong commitment to sustainability. The company's record production levels, efficient refining, and robust financials, including healthy EBITDA and well-managed debt, are impressive. Alongside its focus on traditional energy sectors, Petrobras' strategic investments in renewable energy and sustainable practices make it particularly attractive. The management's emphasis on shareholder value through dividends and low-carbon initiatives further bolsters my confidence. For investors seeking stability and returns, this leader provides an attractive play into the new energy landscape. I see a company ready for the future.

:2230: :2230: :respeto: :respeto:

sancho18
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Registrado: Jue Sep 09, 2021 8:41 am

Re: APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

Mensajepor sancho18 » Mar Ene 16, 2024 10:30 am

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Petrobras: Big Plans, Big Future
Jan. 16, 2024 12:20 AM ETPetróleo Brasileiro S.A. - Petrobras (PBR) Stock, PBR.A Stock17 Comments
Thomas Potter profile picture
Thomas Potter
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Summary

Petrobras demonstrates operational excellence and financial resilience, with record production levels and efficient refining processes.
The company is committed to sustainability and diversification, with investments in renewable energy sources and a focus on low-carbon initiatives.
Petrobras' valuation metrics uniformly signal deep value, making it a gem in the evolving energy landscape
Investment Thesis

In this article, I'll argue why Petrobras (NYSE:PBR, NYSE:PBR.A) stands out as a compelling investment. This Brazilian oil and gas company has demonstrated operational excellence and financial resilience, with a strong emphasis on sustainability. My belief is based on their record production levels, efficient refining processes, and strong financials, including a healthy EBITDA and controlled debt. Petrobras' commitment to sustainable practices and diversification into renewable energy sources is particularly noteworthy. Furthermore, its strategic investments in both traditional and emerging energy sectors, coupled with a management team focused on shareholder value through dividends and low-carbon initiatives, solidify its position as an attractive investment opportunity. In essence, Petrobras combines operational strength with strategic foresight, making it a well-rounded choice for investors seeking growth and stability in the evolving energy landscape.
Introduction

Petróleo Brasileiro S.A., more commonly known as Petrobras, is a publicly traded company operating in the energy sector. It is a major player in the global oil and gas industry and is based in Brazil. Petrobras specializes in the exploration, production, refining, and distribution of oil and gas. Petrobras focuses its efforts on discovering new reserves and efficiently extracting oil and natural gas, and its operations span onshore and offshore across Brazil. The company aims to diversify its energy portfolio by investing in renewable energy sources. In addition to its core activities in the energy sector, Petrobras plays a vital role in the Brazilian economy, contributing to job creation and technological development. Its commitment to innovation is clear through its investment in research and development since it focuses on sustainability and efficiency improvements.
Current Financials and Forward Outlook

Petrobras' latest earnings call paints a picture of strategic direction and strong financial health, reinforcing my conviction in a buy rating for the stock. The commentary from CEO Caio Paes de Andrade depicts a company thriving in the present while positioned for future success. Record-breaking production figures, including oil and gas output reaching around 4 million barrels per day, are standout features speaking to Petrobras' operational prowess. This impressive 8% quarterly increase, particularly evident in high-margin pre-salt areas, bolsters a view of excellence in execution. Further supporting this perspective on the company's strengths are refining plant utilization hitting 96% and notable production and sales volumes for low-sulfur diesel. In my opinion, Petrobras presents a compelling investment opportunity.

Financially, Petrobras is on solid ground. An EBITDA of $13.6 billion coupled with a consistent net profit and robust operating cash flow underscores the company's financial health. Importantly, the control over debt levels speaks to a sustainable long-term financial strategy. A crucial aspect of Petrobras' approach that I find particularly compelling is its commitment to sustainability and diversification. Initiatives like launching carbon-neutral gasoline and high penetration Petroleum Asphalt Cement not only demonstrate a commitment to environmental stewardship but also align the company with the inevitable global energy transition.

The strategic investments being made and the expansion of the workforce signal confidence in future growth. Petrobras is actively investing not just to maintain status quo but to position itself for expansion in both traditional and emerging energy sectors, indicating a balanced approach to growth. Moreover, Petrobras has shown resilience in the face of fluctuating Brent prices and geopolitical uncertainties. Its ability to deliver amidst market volatility reinforces the robustness of its business model. The decisions being made speak to a strategic direction that makes Petrobras an attractive investment opportunity.

Petrobras maintains shareholder value as a priority, evidenced by attractive dividend payouts (we will discuss this more). This focus on providing regular investor returns reinforces an appealing investment case. Additionally, management aims to position Petrobras as a major low-carbon player, a timely strategic move aligning with global energy transitions. This forward-looking stance bodes well for Petrobras’ future relevance and success in an evolving landscape. The emphasis on shareholder rewards and adapting to shifts in energy demand bolsters Petrobras as a compelling investment opportunity.

I think Petrobras makes a convincing investment case with operational power, financial fitness, and strategic vision. Management focuses on attractive shareholder returns now and positions Petrobras as a major low-carbon player for the future, aligning with energy transitions. This bodes well for continued relevance and success. Prioritizing dividends and adapting to industry shifts bolsters the investment appeal. As production, strategic investments, and technology progress, the ingredients are there for commercial success.
2 Recent Contracts To Note

Petrobras' partnership with TechnipFMC for the Mero 3 project in Brazil's pre-salt field is a major milestone, and it is a positive aspect when considering a PBR investment. The contract, valued at over $1 billion, is illustrating scale and ambition. It involves comprehensive services from design to installation, covering crucial subsea equipment and technology. I think the significance here is that the project extends beyond the immediate impact it will have on the balance sheet.

What particularly stands out for me is the introduction of Petrobras’ patented HISEP technology. I see this representing a major leap forward in environmentally responsible oil extraction. Petrobras is setting new standards in sustainable practices by capturing carbon dioxide-rich gasses entirely subsea and re-injecting them into the reservoir.

Moreover, the Mero field's status as Brazil’s third-largest offshore field emphasizes the strategic importance of this project. This is boosting Petrobras' production capabilities and also innovating the way oil is responsibly and sustainably extracted. This approach is interesting, and it solidifies my confidence in Petrobras’ future prospects while reinforcing my buy thesis.

Additionally, Petrobras' multi-year contract with Valaris, worth $519M, for offshore drilling in Brazil is a significant step that strengthens my belief in Petrobras’ investment potential. This contract spans 1,064 days and is set to commence in late Q4 2024. This will follow the completion of Valaris DS-4’s current engagement with Petrobras. What I want to note about this development is the substantial increase in the drillship's day rate. It will effectively double from the low $200,000s to the high $400,000s. This hike is reflecting the market demand and conveying Petrobras' commitment to expanding and enhancing its exploration capabilities at the same time.

Moreover, Valaris’ recent expansion of its drillship fleet to 13 rigs (investing $337M) indicates a growing demand in offshore drilling services, a sector Petrobras is a key player in. This contract with Valaris shows that Petrobras' strategic intent is to capitalize on Brazil's rich offshore reserves, and it’s at a time when global energy needs are escalating. This forward-thinking approach aligns with my investment thesis since Petrobras is focusing on securing essential resources to expand exploration. Therefore, this showcases Petrobras' proactive and growth-oriented strategy in the oil sector, which I admire in the company.
The 5-Year Plan

Petrobras embraces an ambitious $102 billion investment plan through 2028. This over 30% spending hike, visibly prioritizing oil and gas exploration and production, spotlights a growth trajectory targeting average output exceeding 3M barrels daily by 2028. This capital allocation clearly steers Petrobras on a value-accretive path, utilizing financial muscle to elevate output potential in its core hydrocarbon operations. With disciplined Capex concentrated to raise traditional energy yields, the plan promotes profitable expansion.

What excites me the most is the doubling of low-carbon and decarbonization investments to $11.5B, depicting strategic future-proofing. As CEO Jean Paul Prates states, leveraging oil profits to expand renewables balances profitability with responsible transition. This sizable commitment shows vision– utilizing Petrobras’ strength to evolve amidst shifting clean energy priorities. With oil funding's ambitious sustainability goals, Petrobras aligns competitiveness with ethical obligation.

Furthermore, Petrobras' return to the fertilizer sector diversifies its portfolio and taps into another vital industry. I say this because the company has plans to resume operations at one facility and complete construction of another by 2028. This move is very interesting and complements the strategic decision to terminate the sale of the Lubnor refinery, a key asphalt producer. I think Petrobras' commitment to maintaining its valuable assets that contribute to its core business and future growth prospects is worthy of mentioning and definitely playing a role in my overall buy thesis.

Additionally, the new spending plan suggests a high dividend that is soon to be cut, and this could potentially disappoint some investors. But uniquely, I view this as a somewhat frugal approach to balance shareholder returns with necessary investments in order to grow properly and sustainably. And it is interesting to think of it like this: the unsustainable dividend (by the expectancy of it being cut) is making the company more sustainable in the long term! Food for thought. But ongoing, I think Petrobras is positioning itself to succeed today and to lead the energy landscape going forward. This strategy that focuses on core growth areas and its expansion into sustainable energy makes me confident to recommend Petrobras as a compelling investment opportunity.
Mixed Feelings About Cutting Diesel Prices

Petrobras' recent announcement to reduce diesel prices by 6.7% while maintaining gasoline prices reflects a nuanced approach to managing its market strategy during fluctuating global oil prices. This decision could be beneficial for the company in several ways as it aligns diesel prices with current global trends. Firstly, by adjusting prices to more closely mirror global rates, Petrobras can enhance its competitiveness in the domestic market. This could lead to an increase in market share and sales volume. The move also demonstrates Petrobras’ responsiveness to market conditions, potentially bolstering its image and market presence in Brazil. However, analysts have noted that despite the reduction, Petrobras' diesel prices will continue to be higher than the import parity prices. This indicates that while the company is adjusting its pricing strategy, it still maintains a cautious stance, likely to safeguard its profitability. Yet, this approach carries the risk of Petrobras’ diesel being less competitive compared to imported products.

I believe that the broader financial implications of this decision for Petrobras and its investors are multifaceted. The decrease in diesel prices, with a 15.8% reduction year-to-date, alongside an 8.7% cut in gasoline prices, suggests a trend towards lower fuel prices. While this may align Petrobras with global market dynamics and domestic demands, it also poses potential challenges to the company's revenue and profit margins in the short term. Furthermore, the anticipation of additional adjustments as indicated by market analysts adds an element of uncertainty and volatility. This scenario requires investors to carefully weigh the immediate financial impact against Petrobras’ long-term strategic goals. It’s crucial to consider how these price adjustments fit into the company's strategies and their effect on Petrobras’ standing in the global energy sector. In essence, Petrobras’ decision is a strategic attempt to balance market alignment, financial stability, and long-term strategic objectives. For investors, understanding this balance is key to evaluating the implications of such moves on the company's future prospects and the overall investment thesis for PBR.
Risks

Petrobras' third-quarter earnings call of 2023 showcases impressive operational and financial achievements, but it does reveal several risks that I would like to bring to your attention. This is all about creating a balanced article, so let’s dive into some thoughts. Firstly, the reliance on global oil prices poses a solid risk to this investment; this is illustrated by the impact of Brent's 14% drop. When viewing the oil and gas operations, this volatility directly affects the company's revenues and margins. Additionally, the crack spread of diesel decreased by 16%, further emphasizing the susceptibility of the company’s financial performance to external market conditions (and that is a major product of the company).

Furthermore, the company's ambitious expansion and diversification efforts introduce financial risk that I should bring to your attention even though it sounds like a positive strategic play. The transition towards renewable energy sources, including the development of wind farm projects and investments in biorefineries, requires substantial capital. This shift could strain the company's resources in the short term (it is, however, essential for long-term sustainability). And I think it is worth mentioning the increased capital expenditure, which is 31% higher than in the previous year. The other layer of financial uncertainty in the company is the involvement in litigation and disputes related to tax and other regulatory matters, something I can’t quite predict but should be a component when considering an investment.

However, I can say the measures that Petrobras is taking to mitigate these risks. As I look into the company’s debt, it is well-structured and under control, with a gross debt of $61 billion and a net debt of $43 billion, both within their targeted range. Moreover, the company's strategy to balance dividends with investments and cash reserves exemplifies prudent financial management, something that splits the hairs on some but I do see the positive element. This approach, along with the focus on increasing production efficiency and market responsiveness, puts Petrobras in a solid position. It is allowing the company to both navigate the current challenges and capitalize on future opportunities. Despite the risks, Petrobras’ strategic initiatives and sound financial management practices provide a strong foundation for future growth and resilience.
Valuation

Firstly, let's discuss my personal opinion of the stock's valuation through a graphical lens. After analyzing the chart that I have inserted below, I see a bright future for the stock. This is a Point and Figure graph, which is depicted in a traditional three-box reversal method. If we direct our attention to the top right section of the chart, we see an interesting trend. Since June of 2023 (illustrated by the number 6) we can see an upward trend. This is largely conveyed by the blue trend line, too. But specifically, there is an interesting pattern since June of 2023. The stock incrementally inches to a new high (for example, at the stock price of 14.00), falls and tests support levels (beginning at 12.50), and then exceeds the previous high (then trading at 15.00). This seems to repeat three times, so to me, it's vivid. The philosophy that history doesn't repeat itself but mankind does, is quite prevalent here. In other words, the nature of human behavior is repeatable, but historical events, by and large, are less likely. And let's complement this approach with Newton's law that an object will either stay at rest or continue in motion until an external force acts. With investing, this law applies, because there must be some sort of information, or so-called 'external force,' in order to turn the tide. With that, we know momentum is our friend, and I believe it is strong in this PBR thesis. When I can find a unique pattern, as such, I become very optimistic because it is rare visual to find. I further emphasize my buy rating.

:2228: :2228: :2222: :2222:

ceto
Mensajes: 34
Registrado: Vie Dic 22, 2023 10:49 am

Re: APBR (ord) APBRA (pref) Petrobras Brasil

Mensajepor ceto » Lun Ene 15, 2024 12:44 pm

Excelente PBR :D


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